Contents
- Comparison of predictions:
- What the notebook outputs:
- What this is actually doing: We made a colab notebook that lets you generate a bet from two people’s Elicit distributions. You can edit the notebook to generate your bet (the changes won’t be saved). Here’s an example of a suggested bet between Ben Pace and SDM on AI timelines:
Comparison of predictions:
Snapshot link
What the notebook outputs:
**If the event occurs between 24 Oct 2051 and 17 Sep 2059, Ben Pace should pay SDM $87. Otherwise, SDM should pay Ben Pace $13. ** **Disagreement: **You disagree most between 24 Oct 2051 and 17 Sep 2059. **Probabilities: **Ben Pace thinks the probability the event occurs in this range is 8%, while SDM thinks it’s 18%. **Odds: **You should make a bet with 87:13 odds. **Expected Value: **Given your beliefs, you each win $5 in expectation
What this is actually doing:
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We search across the question range to find the interval (with a width of 10% of the total range) where your probabilities differ the most, including the probabilities outside of the bounds
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We determine odds that create equal and positive expected value for each person using the method outlined in this blog post