How to not be an alarmist

"I apologize. I didn’t mean—may I express my concern as calmly and respectfully as I can?" - Prof. Legasov on the consequences of an RBMK reactor meltdown (HBO’s Chernobyl) "This is not going to end well." "There is no evidence of that-" "This is not going to end well." - Donald Trump and Joe Biden on voter fraud (first presidential debate) Winning an argument often requires making a case that some X is a problem. X is bad. Here’s how an avid practitioner of the dark arts can gather soldiers for their cause, no matter what X is or how bad the issue is in context. I think this is how most people argue for their cause. Craft the strongest argument in each category, and if that argument gets defeated, move to another one.

• Current levels of X. No matter how small X is, it could always be smaller.

• Projected levels of X. Sometimes, it’s not the current, but the projected level of X at some point in the future that’s bad.

• The rate of change in X. If X is low and getting lower, it might not be declining fast enough. Or in the context of an overall good trend, there might be a tiny recent bad turn.

• Past levels of X. Even if X no longer exists, it can be blamed for current problems.

• Uncertainty in X. There might be uncertainty whether a low level, declining trend, planned solution, or potential technological breakthrough will happen or continue. Alternatively, some unpredictable circumstance or tail risk might cause a spike in X or a reversal of the declining trend in X.

• Side effects of solutions to X. If the reason we’re beating X is Y, then focus on bad aspects of Y.

• Corollary: if the reason we’re beating X is that we’re afraid of X, then admitting that X is low and/​or declining reduces to case (5).

Stated in the abstract, it’s easy to see how arbitrary this process is. It’s a recipe for looking like an alarmist, *even if we’re telling the truth about a serious issue. *And, of course, you might not just look like, but actually *be *an alarmist. But we do have to confront the problems in our world. Bad things are, in fact, bad. The answer is to have a sense of priorities. Your own, as well as those of your debate partner and audience. Show that you respect them as people. Make a clear statement of what you think their priorities are. Look for fair, win/​win solutions. If you can’t reach that state of mutual understanding and reciprocity no matter how hard you try—and you have to actually try—look for a different audience.