Note: we’ll be meeting outdoors this week at my place. Please dress warmly.
Reading: We are going to continue CFAR modules at the meetup to work on applied rationality. This is week 8: Double Cruxing (round 2). Vishal:
Last week many people had trouble finding a good topics for double cruxing. At the end of the last meetup we floated the idea that people should come in this week with some topics in mind. To that effect, prior to Wednesday please think of a couple statements to crux over, and spend some time unpacking the underlying model and tweaking your credences. For instance, say you were trying to gauge the proposition "The Dow Jones Industrial Average will be around $36000 on September 1st 2022" and your first instinct is to peg this at a 10% credence. You then start thinking about what are the gears of the model that is making you think this, and you identify that it seems to be informed by three broad cruxes: 1) Your views about certain macro trends, 2) Your views about consumer sentiment, 3) The opinions you’ve heard from trusted experts. You reflect on these three classes and you conclude that you’re actually not all that happy with the inputs to your model, and that you seem to be more bearish than you should be, so you readjust your credence up to 20%. You also have found a number of things to possible double crux about. Location: 3266 Inglewood Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90066 Note the following:
- I will start kicking people out ~10-10:30 pm.
- For parking: use street parking. Do not park in the driveway of the house. Street parking is free and doesn’t require any permits.
Schedule:
6:30PM − 7:00PM—Gathering/Chatting
7:00PM − 7:20PM—Surprise of the Week
7:20PM − 7:30PM—Food Ordering & Discussion of Last Week’s Module
7:30PM − 7:45PM—Introduction to Tonight’s Module
7:45PM − 9:00PM—Group Work (may end as soon as food arrives, typically ~8:30-8:45)
9:00PM − 10:30PM—Hanging Out
Contact: The best way to contact me (or anybody else who is attending the meetup) is through our Discord. Feel free to message me (T3t) or Vishal directly. Invitation link: https://discord.gg/TaYjsvN