2021 Darwin Game—Everywhere Else

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else

Contents

Shore

The Shore is an inhospitable wasteland. Algae is available, but it’s not very nitrutious. Coconuts offer an even worse calories-to-digestion ratio.

Name Carrion Leaves Grass Seeds Detritus Coconuts Algae Lichen

Shore 0 0 0 0 20 1000 1000 10

No coconut eaters got established in the Human Garbage Dump, which means no coconut eaters got established in the River or Shore instead. The only available food is algae. The Shore is basically a small bit of Ocean biome with ⅒ of the algae. The algae-eating winner of our Ocean competition has zero speed so it cannot migrate to the Shore.

To top all of it off, predators migrate in from both sea and land.

Soonbegons migrate from time to time to eat the Detritus. Otherwise, the Shore is mostly a graveyard.

Winners?

Soonbegons (kind of) by Martin Randall.

Grassland

The grassland has lots of grass and even more seeds.

Name Carrion Leaves Grass Seeds Detritus Coconuts Algae Lichen

Grassland 0 100 1000 2,000 0 0 0 50

The Grassland took 500 turns to establish an equilibrium.

Generations 1-500

Goes Extinct in Generation Species

11 Meercat colony

14 Flock of birbs

15 Bool

16 Big Oof

17 Empowered Turtle

17 glpp511

18 cg-bird

19 Nyarlathotep

20 Human

21 Tiny Snek

21 grass_mouse

22 Sleepypotat

22 Frontier-W8

23 Armored Nutcracker

23 Toxikeet

23 lGha-S541

24 Cowlagor

27 Karthosorox

30 Piranhakeet

30 cg-fastbird

31 Wampirek

32 Yonge_Snake

34 Sheep

37 Jackrabbit

39 Grassland Tribble

39 Grassland Aphid

40 basic seed fodder

40 Galumphers

40 lGca-AS154

41 GrassSeeater

41 Small Moth

41 SpeedyLichen

41 BeaupreyButGrassland

41 Tribble

42 DefinitelyJustARock

44 Weedle

45 Bob

45 SeedyEaty

45 Locust-Seeds

47 Tribble Hunter Hunter

49 Goat

51 seed fodder

52 Seed Eater Eater Eater

53 Frontier-W2

56 Trash Panda1

56 mediocre 1-2-s

59 Common Rat

61 Omnivorous Tribble Hunter

62 Frontier-W5

63 Siolid

65 Cannibal Locust

68 Tribble Hunter Hunter Hunter Hunter

73 Ziarnojad Malutki

74 Horned Owl

78 Yonge_Omnivore

83 Medium Seedrat

86 Maverick Goose

89 Squish

187 Mooshroom

294 Killer Bunny

345 Untielopay

423 6-0-3 seed

466 Yonge_Vegan

Generations 500-2000

The grassland establishes an equilibrium. The only native species left is the Hopsplitter.

You can’t see it but there’s a single Venomoth on the bottom of the graph.

Winners

Species Native Biome Venom? Weapons Armor Speed Forage? Temperature Adaptation? Creator Social Media

mediocre 1-3-s Temperate Forest Neither 1 0 3 Seeds

Corm None

Hopsplitter Grassland Neither 0 0 10 Grass;Seeds

Nem None

Brown Bear Temperate Forest Neither 3 0 6

elspood None

Venomous Snark Desert Venom + Antivenom 1 0 3 Carrion Heat (Allows survival in the Desert) DaemonicSigil Twitter

Venomoth Rainforest Venom + Antivenom 0 0 3 Grass

aphyer None

Temperate Forest

The temperate forest has lots of leaves and significant seeds.

Name Carrion Leaves Grass Seeds Detritus Coconuts Algae Lichen

Temperate Forest 0 2,000 100 1000 0 0 0 50

Generations 1-200

The population crows, crashes, and then grows again.

Goes Extinct in Generation Species

9 Grizzly Bear

12 Optimistic Omnivore

13 LeavySpeedyTanky

13 The Dark Secret of Harvest Home

14 Colonoscopies

15 TFP511

15 Gobbledygook

16 Boojum

16 Ankylosaurus

16 Monstrous Bandersnatch

17 Arboreal Assailant

17 Ultimate Lifeform

17 Bear2

18 BeauOmni2

21 FastHerbivore

22 RockMonkey

22 Gino Soupprayen

23 Hedgie

24 Basilisk

24 Meta-Lichen

25 Armored Pigeon

26 Lichen Bug

26 Fox

26 Predator

29 Forest Leaf Blight

29 Leaf Tribble

31 TreeSeeater

31 Yonge_Slug

32 Gipgip

32 You Worm!

33 Leafy Luncheoner

33 Caterpie

33 Spider

34 Forest Dragon

34 Woodland Locust

34 Forest Tribble2

40 Munchers

41 Skitter Critter

52 SpeedySeedy

57 Unicorn

57 mediocre 1-3-s

57 lF-LM732

60 Songalagala

62 Mango

69 Sky Shark

70 Locust Eater Eater

71 Brown Bear

72 Snake

78 Bullfrog

79 Pidgeotto

81 Fast Venomous Snake

82 Morpork Owl

85 Deadly Mickey K

89 lFa-G172

93 Phanpy

97 Bear1

104 Omnom

109 Ken Nishimura

110 Forest Scorpion

114 Yonge_Defense

140 Snark

152 Bastion

169 Titanosaur

Generations 200-2000

The system achieves stability stable (except for a random walk among equals).

Goes Extinct in Generation Species

219 Gypsy Moth

272 Armored Sloth

290 Donphan

333 Armadillo1

336 Szaromysik

342 Turtling Trencherman

762 Bofa #0461-B

Winners

None of our final species have venom or antivenom.

Species Native Biome Venom? Weapons Armor Speed Forage? Creator Social Media

Cutiefly Temperate Forest Neither 0 0 0 Seeds alkjash None

Brown Bear Temperate Forest Neither 3 0 6

elspood None

Forest Finch Rainforest Neither 0 0 3 Leaves MA None

Snark Temperate Forest Neither 0 0 10 Leaves Vanessa None

Forest Tribble1 Temperate Forest Neither 0 0 0 Seeds simon None

Mutant Two-Headed Speed Snail Human Garbage Dump Neither 0 0 2 Grass DaemonicSigil Twitter

An honorable mention goes to the N054J’s Forest Tribble2 which is identical to the Cutiefly and the Forest Tribble1.

Rainforest

The Rainforest has lots of leaves and grass but few seeds.

Name Carrion Leaves Grass Seeds Detritus Coconuts Algae Lichen

Rainforest 0 1000 2,000 100 0 0 0 50

Generations 0-1000

It takes 1000 generations to establish an introduction.

Goes Extinct in Generation Species

11 Quartosaurus

11 Jon Rahoi

12 Stinging ant colony

14 Slug

16 Smok Wawelski Przezuwacz

18 Tree Clam

19 Slebbon

22 Rainmun

25 J’s RLB

25 luden

29 Rainforest Leaf Blight

31 Tinysnek

32 Agyneta insolita

36 Crocodile

37 Giant Snake

39 Forest Ape

40 Very Lesser Forest Dragon

42 Birgus

47 Deerling

49 Elephant

60 lRa-G256

61 Murder Hornet

64 Yonge_Rainforest

66 BeauOmni2ButRainforest

79 Jungle Hare

81 Stomporz

84 Raincow

90 Grazing Snake

91 Wombat

93 basic grass fodder

95 Armadillo2

98 Rainforest Aphid

100 GrasseatyTank

111 Bofa 0461

119 Arboreal Grazer

127 Boop

128 Nine-Banded Armadillo

145 Tell Masoud

156 Rain Tribble

168 Lily the Unicorn

187 Panther

283 Forest Finch

305 mediocre 1-3-g

306 Will Die

316 lRa-GLM281

318 Fodder grass

344 Leaf Truck

537 Cheetah

Generations 1000-9000

The population oscillates from there. A small number of Snarks and Brown Bears are not visible.

Goes Extinct in Generation Species

1485 Rony

Winners

Species Native Biome Venom? Weapons Armor Speed Forage? Temperature Adaptation? Creator

Venomoth Rainforest Venom + Antivenom 0 0 3 Grass

aphyer

LeavyTanky Rainforest Antivenom only 0 10 0 Leaves

ViktorThink

Untielopay Grassland Neither 2 0 10 Grass Heat (Allows survival in the Desert) Anonymous #5

mediocre 1-3-s Temperate Forest Neither 1 0 3 Seeds

Corm

Forest Finch Rainforest Neither 0 0 3 Leaves

MA

Snark Temperate Forest Neither 0 0 10 Leaves

Vanessa

Comment

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=8MtCMRuDsk92TdYKi

In the interest of science, I ran 10 more simulations with our submitted population. This is not to open a can of worms or to challenge the results in any way—we all knew we had to win on the first try! https://​​drive.google.com/​​file/​​d/​​1mSqaNlo5KT9l9vmY3ckd8KSTXA0xOz0u/​​view Some things that I observed:

  • The results were highly sensitive to randomness. Almost no species survived consistently.

  • Sometimes defenseless creatures survived and sometimes they didn’t.

  • LeavyTanky (ViktorThink) survived basically every time. Looks like there was no competition for the invincible leaf eater niche in the Rainforest (though plenty of leaf eaters abounded). I would say this is the strongest creature in the field of submissions based on my tests.

  • Usually an apex predator survived (10 attack, 10 speed). Often it was the most successful creature in terms of total energy across all biomes that it spread to. I was usually seeing antivenom in an apex predator not being worth it, but the Cheetah had it and did well in several runs.

  • Venomous creatures almost never survived.

  • As a class, armored tanks were the majority of survivors. Occasionally a speeder would survive, but much less commonly.

  • Usually, some mid-range tanks survived as well (~6 armor). This was often enough to stay ahead of predators while outcompeting invincible tanks.

  • On average only about 15 species survived past generation 1000. 30 species NEVER survived this long together. If you combine species occupying the same niche, this number was barely more than 10.

  • The tundra was always barren. The desert was always taken over by a single species.

  • I was surprised to see the Dump omnivores survive many times (Garbage Disposal, and 2-8-0 algae-...). Creatures with more than a few food sources generally didn’t do well, but the formula seemed decent in the Dump.

  • Sometimes the coconuts got eaten! Not often, though.

  • Often a 1 attack, 1 speed omnivore survived. Usually these took the place of defenseless creatures, but in one case they coexisted. It might be fun to compete to design the creature that does the best against the 555-species field. I might also do some more experiments/​analysis when I have some time—let me know if there’s anything you’re curious about. Congrats to all the winners! Already looking forward to next year. Thanks lsusr for running this again this year!

Comment

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=WCdbXXFpMfXtizNjg

It might be fun to compete to design the creature that does the best against the 555-species field.

Another interesting experiment would be to try to maximize the number of surviving species (starting either from the current set or from nothing).

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=tAsXFcDQfknosfQg5

Resolutions to my pregame prediction elicitation thingies, which I unvirtuously forgot to vote in myself:

Will at least 10 species survive to equilibrium? True. 25 species were credited as winners in at least one biome: Armadillo v2, Desert Tortoise1, Desert Tortoise2, Rock Beetle, Sol Invictus, Super-Armor Fish, Soonbegon, Barnacle, Spanish Beard, Tilli, Seed Beetle, Mutant Two-Headed Speed Snail, Nuclear Waste, Forest Finch, Brown Bear, Trash Slime, Snark, Booyahs, Venomoth, Locust Eater Eater, Hopsplitter, mediocre 1-3-s, Venomous Snark, Cutiefly, Forest Tribble1 Soonbegon didn’t "survive to equilibrium" despite being called a winner, so I probably shouldn’t count it. Will at least 30 species survive to equilibrium? False. You could make it true by deciding to count species that won in multiple biomes once for each biome they won in, but I’m not going to do that. Will at least one creature exist in each biome at equilibrium? False. Tundra has no creatures at equilibrium. Shore has no permanent residents, but it definitely looks like the other biomes supply it enough for it to always have creatures. Will a species with no armor, weapons, or speed survive to equilibrium? True. Three defenseless seed-eating species survived. Will a species with an energy value of 20 or greater survive to equilibrium? True. Booyahs just barely makes it: 2 for attack, 10 for speed, 6 for carrion, 2 for heat resistance, 0.1 base rate, total of 20.1. No other surviving species is that expensive. Soonbegon also costs 20.1. Will a species with 1 or more armor survive to equilibrium? True. When I was theorycrafting I thought armor was trash, but I have been proven very wrong. Armor is the cheapest way to be invincible, and every surviving species has either 0 or 10 armor. Will a species with venom survive to equilibrium? True. Venomoth and Venomous Snark had venom and survived. (Soonbegon also had venom). At equilibrium the only venom predation is Venomoth->Locust Eater Eater, but venom also protects these species from the Brown Bear and the Booyahs. Will a pure predator with no foraging adaptations survive to equilibrium? **True. **Brown Bear is the only one, but with little predatory competition it thrived in three different biomes.

Comment

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=uxRxM3rEYWbhskM78

Here’s our Brier scores for our predictions: https://​​docs.google.com/​​spreadsheets/​​d/​​1qhuACrtD0esgCqz8rQvYcZOC0I1y1l66/​​edit#gid=225287990 The defenseless creature result really surprised most of us. Well done, aphyer, you knew what was up.

Comment

False. You could make it true by deciding to count species that won in multiple biomes once for each biome they won in, but I’m not going to do that.

I’m giving myself credit for a much better score than that. ;)

Edit: as per elspood’s simulations, I am revoking all of my supposed credit.

Not well enough to get more than one animal to survive, alas.

The one thing I did manage to improve my survival odds by doing was steering clear of the Tundra...even after the buff to Lichen (prior to which Tundra was mathematically impossible to survive) it seemed pretty likely that even a single non-trivial Tundra predator being submitted would inevitably wipe the whole region out. It looked like...rather a lot of people submitted distinctly non-trivial predators there.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=xtJahC4qCH4hvzZTJ

Soonbegon didn’t "survive to equilibrium" despite being called a winner, so I probably shouldn’t count it.

I think it did survive in the Benthic?

Comment

The graph in the benthic article only shows up to generation 1000. Soonbegon goes extinct in the river close to generation 9000. Soonbegon shouldn’t be able to compete with the more efficient detritus-eating species in the benthic anyway.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=cNXiEBSKAJ3qWBCaQ

When I was theorycrafting I thought armor was trash, but I have been proven very wrong. Armor is the cheapest way to be invincible, and every surviving species has either 0 or 10 armor.

I thought so too. I was surprised by how useful Armor was.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=x6zegzrfHd3cEfcS6

I reimplemented the game in vanilla Python and managed to simulate it several hundred times with ~10k random species for a total of hundreds of thousands of generations. Unfortunately, I didn’t read Hylang documentation carefully and thought foragers could simultaneously eat one of every food available, instead of just the most nutritious one... Only my throwaway locust clone survived under the real rules. :’(

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=S4mfxWYhceLtjiAaK

In the temperate forest, the Snark is listed as extinct in generation 140 but then it appears in the table of winners. Does it mean it was reintroduced from other biomes?

Comment

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=j2SyDbgTGrJT65zP6

Yeah. The extinction table lists the first generation in which a native species has population 0 in its home biome.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=qfp9pFDPsGLjwrzYM

Hoo, my entry Rainforest, RainforestWhen you gonna run out of time, my Rony?Hoo, you eat both grass and seeds, grass and seedsTwo meals on which you can dine, my Rony Hope you never stop, keep it up, such a fertile findTry to get away from a touch predatory kindMy, my, my, my, woo! M-m-m-my poor Rony Flying with a speed of four, speed of fourFlying all the way to Grassland, my RonyFind another place to thrive, place to thriveAssuming you can survive, my Rony Hope you never stop, keep it up, reach stabilityValidate ecosys-stemic suitabilityMy, my, my, my, woo! M-m-m-my poor Rony Generation count, passing by, fourteen hundredMay be just a matter of time, my Rony?Is it d-d-destiny, d-destinyOr it is just a game in my mind, my Rony? M-m-m-my poor Rony

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=kGu3fPNogsFnAGrvH

Do you have the full list of submitted creatures? I’d like to poke at it myself.

Comment

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=ktSRmtqcnreuqgjp9

It’s here in the GitHub repo, which I have made public again.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=4igAZLKGdKmDJpvAL

I can’t figure out where Soonbegons are coming from. It looks like they have a population in the River for some time but then go extinct. Do they exist somewhere else that I missed?

Comment

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else?commentId=d48XTfzyRexCidBce

They also survive in the Ocean sometimes.