March 22nd & 23rd: Coronavirus Link Updates

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/voxJZyvxsfSheEvP3/march-22nd-and-23rd-coronavirus-link-updates

Contents

Aggregators

Sources of state and local legal info (USA) Collection of resources to follow specific states, and a spreadsheet of each state’s current, uh, state in regard to C19 Financial Times C19 Coverage Rob Wiblin describes FT’s coverage of C19 as ahead of the curve and worth paying for (EV): I can’t verify this as I’m not yet paying for FT coverage Chinese language version of Quora on COVID Chinese Q&A site discussing Covid. (RS) Interesting to see general day to day activity and response to international news from the Chinese mainland perspective. Lots of thought provoking questions being discussed.

Dashboards

Current state of states and localities (USA) Columns like "contacts", "executive orders", "travel restrictions" Map of tests per capita by country Worldwide map with countries colored by testing per capita, with exact counts in a table

Economics

Cost of coronavirus reaction Two approaches to calculating how much the money lost from the economy due to shutdowns could have saved lives (EV) Starts with the current death count, no projected uncontrolled death count, which is a terrible sign. Leaves out lives saved for non-C19 reasons from shut downs (via e.g. polllution and reduced driving) Diagnostics briefing 22 page doc on the current state of C19 testing and what you need to know to make decisions to increase it

Medical System

Census of USA hospital resources Society for Critical Care Medicine’s newly conducted census of US ICU beds, vents, and other medical resources. Staffing strategies to cope with overload Virologist explains why vaccine may be possible Virologist/​investor explains why people are unnecessarily pessimistic about creating a vaccine for C19. Standards for a minimally acceptable ventilator This is a specification of the minimally (and some preferred options) clinically acceptable ventilator to be used in UK hospitals during the current COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus. It sets out the clinical requirements based on the consensus of what is ‘minimally acceptable’ performance in the opinion of the anaesthesia and intensive care medicine professionals and medical device regulators. Review of evidence around chloroquine Summarizes all available evidence around chloroquine and finds it worth further study but not particularly established. USArmy Engineers have plans for fast creation of new medical facilities, starting to act US Army plans to create field hospitals out of existing structures (e.g. hotels) and initial action in NY. FDA bans at home C19 testing FDA specifically ammends rules to bar at-home collection of samples for C19 tests. (EV) I am so angry about this

Other

Summary of Metaculus Covid19 Forecasts Goes through the main predictions, showing how they changes over time.

Progression & Outcome

Half of patients reported to hospital with digestive issues as their chief complaint 84% of digestive cases reported anorexia, 29% diarrhea. 3.5% of patients had digestive but no respiratory symptoms Loss of smell an early indicator of C19? Several doctors anecdotally report a lot of patients presenting with loss of sense of smell (anosmia).

Science

What does C19 do to your lungs? An "Explain it to me like I’m 5" for how lungs should work and how C19 interferes with them. Why is C19 so successful Layman-accessible description of why C19 is so infectious and so dangerous.

Spread & Prevention

Model of multiple outcomes based on configurable inputs High polish visualization of multiple outcomes (spread, effect of intervention, hospital capacity..) based on inputs configurable by slider Flattening the curve is shrinking the curve Basic SIR models demonstrate that flattening the curve (by shrinking R0) also shrink the total number of people infected Estimates prevalence by looking at exports Estimates C19 prevalence using data from countries that check travelers at the border Can we conserve tests by pooling? In a world where most tests are negative, you could pool samples and test them together to get results for more people Lit Review on Melatonin As Covid Treatment Fairly substantial amount of literature covered by a Human Biology PhD. Key takeaway: "Melatonin appears to reduce exacerbated immune responses by lowering production of pro-inflammatory cytokines including IFN-gamma and IL6 which are responsible for inflammation in the lung and loss of function during ‘cytokine storm’ a feature of COVID19. This is found in both animal studies and in human studies." Type A blood especially susceptible to C19? Pre-print says that those with type A blood are more likely to test positive in a hospital (implying hospitalization?) than B or AB, who are in turn more likely than those with type O. All differences were statistically signficant but modest Chef claims restaurant food is safe Pretty thorough article on why C19 is not transmissible through food, and precauations to take around food. (EV): I am not 100% convinced on this given the digestive symptoms evidence

Work & Donate

When do donate PPE to hospitals? Model of when to do the most good with donations to hospitals, given institutional resistance to change Possible donation targets Currently 10 options, some of which are aggregators but some of which I haven’t seen elsewhere. Request for volunteers to find local testing data Oxford PhD student looks for volunteers to find up-to-date testing numbers for all countries Prophylactic hydroxychloroquine trial for medics A project recruiting front line healthcare workers to test using hydroxychloroquine as a preventative measure against C19

Link to Full Database