[Link] Countering The Inside View and Making Better Decisions

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BcMsjHH6cjpEPN2j8/link-countering-the-inside-view-and-making-better-decisions

Great article that systemetizes the process of taking the outside view into 4 steps. Thought LWers might get a kick out of it.

http://​​www.farnamstreetblog.com/​​2015/​​05/​​inside-view-michael-mauboussin/​​

Comment

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BcMsjHH6cjpEPN2j8/link-countering-the-inside-view-and-making-better-decisions?commentId=SLLTaKQHTJFQDJv6M

The value statement in the article appears to be; "make predictions, assess the quality of those predictions, adjust your prediction engine, repeat"

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BcMsjHH6cjpEPN2j8/link-countering-the-inside-view-and-making-better-decisions?commentId=MaWKZ6tdafvPHEemZ

Misread: Countering the Inside View Makes You Delicious

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BcMsjHH6cjpEPN2j8/link-countering-the-inside-view-and-making-better-decisions?commentId=JAhqAqy5muLM2ee8p

Sorry, this was an useless post so now it’s gone

Comment

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    2015-06-01T08:16
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BcMsjHH6cjpEPN2j8/link-countering-the-inside-view-and-making-better-decisions?commentId=w6aRSEScH3wioG7gn

I think that this blog often falls into the trap of too much jargon without enough context, because it uses large chunks of direct quotes.

I don’t think that it over reached with reference class forecasting—it seemed to me to do a good job of summarazing. Which step do you feel overreached?